The focus of the week ahead is going to be on what happens to the retailers on Friday… the infamous day after Thanksgiving where sales are plentiful and the consumer typically comes out in full-force. With people lined up around the block at your local Target, Best Buy and Wal-Mart, everyone tries to get a piece of the action. Heck, even Coca-Cola has made a splash in years past by selling energy drinks and sodas to people waiting up at 3AM to be the first in line.
What’s New This Year?
This year, I wouldn’t expect the results to be very hot. Why? Stores are doing everything that they can to beat competitors on sales — Toys R’ Us, for example, is going to open to Black Friday sales at 10:00PM Thanksgiving night and stay open for 24 hours straight. Similarly, many U.S. department stores have moved their opening times forward by more than an hour.
Is a race for time a bullish indicator of sales? I would argue that it is not. Does opening at 3AM instead of 4AM actually boost sales? I would have to believe anyone out there that early is going to go shopping regardless… you are simply shifting sales that are practically in the bag to earlier times of the day. Anyone who wants to shop on Black Friday is going to get that opportunity — which is why I believe personally that this year will be bigger for Amazon.com and other online-focused shops than it will be for any physical stores.
Where are the deals?
Deal-hunters should check out the web’s #1 coupon site, SlickDeals.net. They have a Black Friday section that I will likely monitor for unique deals throughout the week. If there is something lucrative out there, this site is going to be the first to find it.
What are the Hot Sellers This Season?
I’ve taken a look through some Black Friday ad scans, as provided by SlickDeals.net, and have identified the following list of products that should sell well next weekend. If you are an internet marketer, it would be in your best interest to design campaigns that run off of the success of these consumer products:
- Mobile Phones (always a big winner on Black Friday):
- Notables: Samsung Fascinate, Intensity II; Droid Incredible; Pantech Laser; LG Optimus S
- Flat-Screen Televisions:
- Notables: Panasonic Viera; Samsung LEDs; Toshiba LCDs
- E-Readers:
- Notables: Barnes & Noble Nook; Pandigital Novel
- I do not believe the Kindle will sell well, they seem to be targeting Christmas and have already dropped their price down to $139
- Toys:
- iPod Touch, Toy Story 3, Transformers, Barbie
Conclusion: The trends are light in general this year… and I think unless Amazon unveils a new price decrease for Black Friday shoppers in their Amazon Kindle e-Reader, it is going to be a very bad shopping year across the board. Deals are pretty scarce at this point (was much more active by this point in time last year), and I think retailers are hesitant to drop prices and kill their margins because the buying volume just isn’t there to make up for lower profits. The U.S. Savings Rate is up near all time highs, and the consumer is cautious — I’m bearish overall on Black Friday shopping and believe it will miss expectations.
-Jimvesting.com

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