Alright, first things first — this blog is NOT turning into a sports blog. I apologize for the lack of other content,  but will be resuming my normal flow shortly. It is always tough to get new material out when a semester of college has just kicked off, and you don’t have NFL playoffs all year.

With that being said… we went 2-2 last week for a net record of 5-3 overall. Let’s win some bets!

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

The battle for NFC champion is on, and most sports analysts are REALLY pushing the Green Bay Koolaid. However, I think there are compelling reasons to take the Chicago Bears, who I believe to be the undervalued team where the Packers might be severely over-hyped. I’d take the Chicago Bears here +3.5, and am honestly offended that the team with the better season and home field advantage is the underdog. When the Packers are in close games, they are 0-7 this season. I think people were generally under-prepared for playing Green Bay throughout the last few weeks — and the Bears will not be surprised. Special teams and Defense are big advantages in high-intensity games, and the Bears have the clear advantage in both categories.

New York Jets (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

The Jets are absolutely fired up, and I see their success against the Patriots carrying them through to the superbowl. I’d take the Jets +3.5 against the home team Steelers. Why? Well defense is moot when both teams are tops in the league. I turn to offense, and I think the Jets are absolutely red hot (c’mon, did nobody watch the post-game interview with Bart Scott?). The game might just come down to who can create more turnovers (which I think will be plentiful)… and Ben Roethlisberger is certainly better at managing his passing attack. However, I think analysts are ignoring the Jets’ vastly superior run game, which will be a huge advantage when nobody really wants to pass.

As always, stay bullish my friends!
-Jimvesting

We had a great start to the year last week, hitting on three out of four bets, that landed us at 75% accuracy with spreads in place. The first round of the playoffs had some great games, including a monstrous upset of the reigning champions (New Orleans Saints) by the Seattle Seahawks. This week, I’m predicting a lot less surprise and am going counter-trend again to hopefully collect on some over-extended spreads in Vegas.

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

As predicted, the Ravens were simply too much for the Kansas City Chiefs… and the battle on the ground was won strongly by the birds. This week, we have two classic rivals lining up for a showdown in Heinz Field. My prediction? I see the Ravens continuing to push and coming out with the victory on the road despite lacking home field advantage. Both teams have won against each other on the road this year, and while this doesn’t necessarily reflect my reasons for picking Baltimore I think it helps dispel one reason for picking the Steelers. Both teams are known for defense, but when it comes to offense you want to go with the hotter quarterback with more to prove (Joe Flacco). They have very similar teams and often engage in low-scoring affairs, which is why I believe taking Baltimore with +3 points is the correct play.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

Biggest stat here is that Matt Ryan is 20-2 all time at home, and the Falcons are 7-1 this season at home. Their ability to annihilate teams on their home turf makes me favor the favorite. Green Bay is hot, yes, but honestly I think this is the best chance you can get to go AGAINST the trend and see past the hype. I believe the Packers aren’t as good as we think, and getting the #1 NFC seed against the #6 with less than a field goal as your spread is very juicy. I’d take Atlanta -2.5.

Seattle Seahawks (7-9) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

Chicago is favored by a whopping 10 points in this game, which really should scare off a lot of people from siding with the favorite. However, I’m the kind of guy that likes to get on the other side. I’d advise taking the Chicago Bears -10 against the Seahawks. Why? Seattle had a miraculous game last week, and I think it was simply a one-hit-wonder against a team with a defense nowhere as good as the Chicago Bears. The Bears should be able to play much closer to mistake-free football than the Saints ever could, and so long as Jay Cutler doesn’t commit more than 2 turnovers I like this matchup.

New York Jets (11-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)

This is a much-hyped contest, where Rex Ryan has been absolutely tearing into Bill Belichick all week trying to stir the pot. If the Jets can stay with the run game, create confusion for Tom Brady on defense and limit their penalties and turnovers… they actually have a great shot at beating the Patriots again. Yes, many of us forget after the Pats dismantled the Jets at home 45-3 that the Jets actually beat the Patriots when THEY were at home by a score of 28-14. I think they will be better prepared, and while I still see the Pats winning, I’d advise taking the Jets with a generous +8.5 spread.

That’s it this week, stay bullish!
-Jimvesting

It’s playoff time in the NFL! I’m going to start off my picks (record at 0-0) this year with four exciting matchups that will determine who will play those #1 and #2 seeded teams in each conference. Remember, I do not encourage gambling unless you have legal access to it! According to Professor I. Nelson Rose, one of the world’s leading gambling law authorities: “no United States federal statute or regulation explicitly prohibits Internet gambling, either domestically or abroad.” For me, I’ve never heard of anyone being prosecuted for online betting, so from my standpoint what I do is perfectly legal for a USA citizen over the age of 18. I’d recommend Diamond Sportsbook because they have been around for many years and have an excellent track record.

Alright enough legal mumbo-jumbo, let’s get into it!

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

I most typically find myself betting against common opinion, which is one of the many reasons I have taken the Seattle Seahawks in this matchup. These two teams saw each other earlier in the year, where the Saints won 34-19. However, since then I believe that the Seahawks have gotten a lot more momentum, Matt Hasselbeck will start, Pierre Thomas is on the injured reserve (eliminating a major threat), and the Saints now have to play on the road. Seattle is actually a very difficult stadium to win in on the road, and the Saints are still favored by 10.5? I’d take the Seahawks +10.5.

New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

As much as I’d love to pick the Jets here, they are just too much of a roller coaster ride. For me, the matchup all comes down to the performance of Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has been hot and cold all season, and with this being his first real test… I think that the patience and confidence of Peyton Manning is just too much to pass up on the road. There are a lot of favorable matchups on the receiving end for the Colts, and so long as the defense can contain the Jets running game I think they get it done. Colts are favored by 2.5 points, so I’d take the Colts -2.5.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

I’m definitely big on betting with momentum, and after losing an easy game to the Vikings at home two weeks ago before skating by the lowly Dallas Cowboys last week… the Eagles simply don’t have it. Contrasting this is the Green Bay Packers, who knew they had to win against the New York Giants AND the Chicago Bears in back to back weeks in order to have a shot at the playoffs. While their past week against the Bears was no show-stopper, they got it done and are riding high. Eagles QB Michael Vick got shaken up during that game against the Vikings two weeks ago, and simply hasn’t been the same since. The Packers won against the Eagles this season on the road 27-20 and Philadelphia is still the last ranked red zone defense in the entire league. The stars are aligning – I’d take the underdog Green Bay Packers +3.

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

Here’s a matchup with two very similar teams, and unfortunately for the Ravens (who have two more wins and were seen as a top five team all year), they must go into Arrowhead Stadium and face the Chiefs on the road. Even with this in mind, I believe the Ravens walk away with a win here. The reason? Kansas City has been very questionable when they haven’t been able to establish a run game and the Ravens have just the defense to shut it down, get a lead early and control the tempo. With a QB (Joe Flacco) that has seen more playoff action, this team will be more settled down and make less mistakes… which is why I’m taking the Ravens -3.

So there are our picks for the week. Remember to bet responsibly and never go on margin to place your wagers. We’ve got an even mix of two underdogs and two favorites, let’s see how it shakes up!

-Jimvesting

There has been a lot of hubbub surrounding the recent announcement that Facebook is looking to raise equity through a deal with Goldman Sachs. If you haven’t heard, Goldman Sachs is helping Facebook raise $1.5 Billion in additional equity through the private markets. All of their equity is totally private, so you’d assume that most of the shareholders are employees and very wealthy individuals with ties to the company or a good wealth manager.

Quick Lesson: Equity and Debt are the two ways that a company can get capital (cash). Debt comes with terms like a set maturity time and interest rates… equity, on the other hand, allows people to simply invest in a company and in return own a portion of profits into the future! In general, debt is cheaper than equity, but carries a higher liability and adds risk to the balance sheet.

Many newswires are reporting stories that would lead you to believe that this move is indicative of an upcoming Initial Public Offering (IPO) — in other words, trading with a ticker symbol on the open stock market where anyone can buy/sell their equity. For some examples, see: “Is Facebook’s IPO coming sooner than expected?“; “Will Facebook Succumb To IPO Pressure?“; and ”The Facebook IPO Is Proof That Everything Is Being Reinvented“. To the contrary, I believe that this move is actually one in which Goldman Sachs is behaving as the white knight… bailing Facebook out of the need to go public with their numbers.

Why An IPO Ain’t Comin’!

For Facebook, the thought of being a publicly-traded company runs contrary to the “cool” factor that has made it such a success. The new age of tech startups is a lot different than the prior era where firms couldn’t wait to get themselves public with free access to capital on the open market. There are several disadvantages to being public nowadays, and Facebook is (supposedly) far from a mature company, so the general consensus is better private than public.

Unfortunately, once Facebook has 500 private shareholders, the SEC regulates that all of their financials must be made transparent. For Mark Zuckerberg, this spells trouble because private equity is one of the company’s most sought after forms of compensation. The beauty behind this deal is that Goldman will invest around $1.5 billion into the company… but won’t add more than one shareholder if all goes according to plan. Here’s how it works: 1) Goldman Sachs goes out to its clients and offers the chance to invest in Facebook; 2) Goldman Sachs pools all of the money that it has received interest for; 3) Goldman Sachs invests the collective sum on its investors behalf… but it is only technically counted as ONE investor! Pretty smooth, eh? It is almost like a syndicated loan — a “special purpose vehicle (SPV)” by definition.

To me, this move by Zuckerberg and Facebook is one that says “hey, we need cash… but we really don’t want to go public.” In no way to me does this say “giddy up, lets go public baby!”

So contrary to public belief, I see Goldman Sachs actually stepping in to save Facebook the need to “sell out” by becoming openly traded. There is already a bit of undeserved outrage from Facebook users in groups like “Keep your dirty hands off my FB“, but hey… we’ll see how it works out for the company. Only problem is: how long can Facebook feasibly wait until investor pressures to execute an IPO get the best of them?

Stay bullish.
-Jimvesting.com

Many financial research analysts make their predictions every year about what they think the economy will do. As a word of warning, it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to nail these things, and any advice that you read here should be taken with a grain of salt. My portfolio has now outpaced the market (S&P 500 is my benchmark) by a considerable amount 3 years running, and I’d like to hope the success continues.

Jimvesting.com’s Year-Opening Trades

This year, I am betting on a solid market that favors late-cyclical companies… meaning stocks that benefit once a recovery is in place and businesses start outlaying capital with increased confidence. We’re talking certain industrials, materials and energy stocks for the most part.

My biggest bet so far is one of the biggest basic materials companies, specializing in aluminum and other metals. Naturally, I’m talking about the bellwether Alcoa (AA), which I purchased at $15.20 on December 31st, 2010. I love this company going forward as their product is heavily involved in late-cycle industries like construction and automotives, and management has just begun to turn bullish after having big negative numbers throughout the recession. They still trade very cheap at 15 times forward earnings, and I’m up almost 9% on the trade in a matter of two days.

My second trade was into an oil services company called Weatherford International (WFT). I think the oil services space is ready to roar in 2011 after being held back too long from the BHP oil spill many months ago. Weatherford is healthier than a Baker Hughes or a Schlumberger and have seen a lesser stock price appreciation over the past few months. I bought in also on December 31st at a price just north of $22/share… flat on the trade thus far but I am optimistic with oil expected to tear up toward $100 by year end.

Five Contrarian Market Predictions for 2011

A “contrarian” pick is one that the market isn’t expecting. This means if you happen to bet big, you win big… but if you are wrong, you probably won’t lose that much because nobody thought it’d happen anyway, eh? I like to bet against the market when I think that there is an opportunity to see reversion, and if I had to take a few shots… I’d go with the following:

1. The S&P 500 Index Will Climb More Than 15% on the Year
Businesses are flush with cash and ready to expand. Many of the economic indicators like ISM Manufacturing are headed in the right direction. Investors are (finally) hopping out of the bond market and the global environment is slowly stabilizing. Commodities are moving higher as the dollar stays suppressed which encourages exports. Finally, the Standard and Poor’s Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is still on the lower end of historical averages and is well below recession-recovery levels we’ve learned to trust in the past. THERE ARE STILL HEADWINDS… but I think the positives are going ignored and investors nowadays love to be bearish. The average expectation right now is around 10% appreciation on the markets, and I love a better than expected result.

2. Chinese Inflation Stays Under Control
Yes, China has a booming economy and has had to raise interest rates two times over the past few months to fight it. Many investors assume that with commodity growth getting out of hand, and a housing oversupply potentially creating a bubble, they are doomed to see hyperinflation. I believe differently, and think that the decentralized command economy may actually be better suited to handle the rush of inflation than a capitalist regime. They are certainly being aggressive so far as they try to control drastic price movements, I think it could be just what the doctor ordered.

3. U.S. Federal Reserve Raises Rates Before Year End
Yep, I said it. I haven’t seen anyone talking about the United States Federal Reserve actually (*gasp*) RAISING the federal funds borrowing rate this year. If we learned anything from the post-IT bubble crash, it is that you simply have to take the punch bowl away when people are clamoring for cheaper borrowing rates. The makeup of the Federal Open Market Committee should change in favor of those more hawkish (a.k.a. aggressive against inflation) in January, and I believe this along with a good stock market will create an environment where we might see a rate hike later on this year.

4. Gold Ends the Year Flat
Gold, gold, gold… everybody wants to buy the stuff. I say the metal is finally at a point where it is fairly valued, and investors will start to shift out of the protective portfolio stance of owning gold once gains begin to be realized in the equity markets on lower volatility. I don’t think gold will close lower, but all the big managers are recommending to stock up on the good stuff and I think it’s gone too far. The GLD has been the best performing ETF for a long time running, but I say you need to own something with intrinsic value. Can gold really go 20% higher without rampant hyperinflation or another depression? There’s not much left in the tank in my mind.

5. Unemployment Breaks Back Above 10%
Sorry to say, but I think the problems in the municipal market will blow up in our faces in 2011. I do not think that this will come in the form of utter bankruptcy, rather… I see a soft landing as states are forced to drastically cut costs and end up surviving. However, you know what happens when we cut costs — layoffs. Government jobs were a big part of the recovery, and I think they lead us in the opposite direction in 2011.

So there we go, five out-of-favor predictions for the market in 2011. We will revisit this at the end of the year to see what hit and what missed. Please remember that nothing in this article should be thought of as investment advice, as I am not a licensed financial advisor. If you are looking to invest on your own and aren’t set up, I use ThinkOrSwim as my stock brokerage.

Stay bullish my friends.
-Jimvesting